In January, the economy entered the second year of its recession. The magnitude of the downturn is not unprecedented by any means. Several of the past recessions brought larger decreases in gross domestic product and higher levels of unemployment. But the speed of the current deterioration is daunting. The bulk of it took place in the last quarter of 2008. AIER’s statistical indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to point to further contraction. It seems unlikely that the recession has reached its trough.