The economy is showing signs of life, but a jumble of government proposals could thwart the recovery.

The economy began showing signs of improvement in August, when AIER’s 12 primary leading indicators first posted widespread increases. This month, the primary roughly coincident indicators are also finally showing new life. A turnaround in the business cycle is either imminent or underway.

Despite this, both Congress and the Obama administration are proposing new stimulus measures that include a jobs program and targeted tax breaks. The question remains: At what cost and to what end? Besides not being helpful to the economy, these proposals also fly in the face of the government’s newly found commitment to “freeze” spending.

This month, the percentage of leading indicators expanding reached 91 (10 out of 11 with a discernible trend), up from 90 last month. The cyclical score of the leaders, which is based on a separate, purely mathematical analysis, also modestly increased, from 62 to 63. For these measures, a value above 50 indicates that a recovery is likely.