The leaders continue to signal recovery. But some changes in base data point to persistent difficulties. In the meantime, Washington tries to influence the tides with a jobs bill.

The percentage of AIER’s 12 primary leading indicators that are expanding remains unchanged at 91, 10 out of 11 indicators with a discernible trend. The cyclical score of the leaders, which is based on a separate, purely mathematical analysis, increased this month to 70 from 66 last month.

With both measures above 50, the leaders continue to point to a recovery. But there is reason for concern: Seven of the 12 leading indicators saw a slight decrease in the base data for the most recent month. A one-month
decrease is not sufficient to establish a change in a trend, and some of these declines appear to be the result of temporary causes. Others, however, indicate that the recovery remains fragile.