Modest changes in the jobs picture and high scores for our leaders point to recovery. But for many people, the road ahead remains hard.

This month, for the first time in almost six years, 100 percent of the leading indicators with a discernible trend are expanding, and the cyclical score of the leaders has increased to 77 from 70. The coinciders also continue to strengthen—75 percent of them are expanding, up from 67 last month. Their cyclical score has increased to 65 from 54. With all of these indexes, a number above 50 indicates that economic expansion is likely.

Positive signs in employment bolster our view that a recovery is underway. In addition, many of the signs of weakness seen in last month’s leaders appear to have been transitory.

Nonagricultural employment increased by 160,000 jobs in March. The average number of initial claims for state unemployment insurance fell to 450,000 per week, 150,000 fewer than at this time last year. This number remains high. But even in the best of economic times, there are usually more than 300,000 claims per week. In addition, the ratio of civilian employment to population has increased since the beginning of this year, prompting us to upgrade its cyclical status from probably contracting to indeterminate. (The increase in employment includes 48,000 federal jobs for the census that are unlikely to exist for more than a few months.)