AIER’s primary leading indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to signal that economy is in a recession.The percentage of primary leading indicators appraised as expanding decreased to 30 this month, down from 40 last month. A score below 50 indicates that recession is more likely than recovery.

One of the leading indicators, new housing permits, fell to the lowest level in the history of the series, which has been tracked since 1946.  Another leading indicator, index of common stock prices (constant purchasing power), has fallen to the level not seen since October 1996.

The AIER cyclical score, which is based on a purely mathematical analysis of the leading indicators, decreased from 43 last month to 37 this month. As with the percentage of leaders expanding, a number below 50 indicates a recession is likely.

None of the roughly coincident indicators are appraised as expanding this month. This suggests that a recession is underway.

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