For the first time since April 2007, our statistical indicators show that a recovery is more likely than a contraction.

After increasing for four months in a row, the percentage of primary leading indicators expanding stands at 78 (seven out of nine indicators with a discernible trend). The cyclical score of leaders, which is based on separate purely mathematician analysis, has increased to 54, and we revised the last month’s score from 46 to 51. When the percentage of leaders expanding and the cyclical score both rise above 50, expansion is more probable than contraction.