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Business-Cycle Conditions Update, January 2009 |
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Written by Polina Vlasenko
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Wednesday, 07 January 2009 00:00 |
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January 2009: Percent of AIER Leaders Expanding falls to 20; Cyclical Score of Leaders is 33 AIER’s primary leading indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to point to a recession with no signs of a turnaround. The percentage of primary leading indicators appraised as expanding decreased to 20 this month, down from 30 last month. A score below 50 indicates that a continued contraction is likely.
The only two primary leading indicators appraised as expanding—the M1 money supply and the yield curve index—reflect the government’s extremely expansionary monetary policy. There is no evidence that the policy has had any influence on the broader economy. The AIER cyclical score, which is based on a purely mathematical analysis of the leading indicators, decreased from 37 last month to 33 this month. As with the percentage of leaders expanding, a number below 50 indicates a downturn is likely to continue. Not one of the six roughly coincident indicators is appraised as expanding this month. The National Bureau of Economic Research announced recently that a recession started in December 2007. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the Gross Domestic Product fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter. Read a general description of our indicators and methods of analysis. - Receive a detailed monthly analysis of business conditions, plus articles and books on a wide range of economic issues. Learn more about the benefits of Membership.
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What will the value of the dollar be then? What will the degree of inflating be then? What will our economy look like? Will foreigners continue to buy United States' debt?
The House is holding hearings to revise the popular IRA. Why? Workers fund their IRAs with pre-tax dollars. The Federal government realizes no taxes from these employees until the IRA begins to be used for retirement income. And for new workers, that could be as many as thirty or forty years.
In Franklin Roosevelt's time, the government's share of GNP was 3%. Today it is 21%, and growing. When universal health care is imposed upon the populace, expect significant new government spending. This will further accrue to the current share of the nation's expenditures. Such new spending will dwarf any "stimulus" package now being considered by the incoming administration.
Simply put, the European experiment with socialism is coming here. The Federal government will be taking on significant additional debt. Private industry will be saddled with the need to carry even more government employees who will be lost to productive pursuits.
That is why I tell all young people to do two things: first, buy gold at pace. Second, open and fund a foreign bank account. Pay your taxes, report the account to the Treasury to conform with the law. And if Armageddon occurs, run to your money.
THE TRADE CYCLE OCCURED DUE TO IMBALANCEMENT BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY,