Business-Cycle Conditions Update, January 2009 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Polina Vlasenko   
Wednesday, 07 January 2009 00:00
January 2009: Percent of AIER Leaders Expanding falls to 20; Cyclical Score of Leaders is 33

AIER’s primary leading indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to point to a recession with no signs of a turnaround. The percentage of primary leading indicators appraised as expanding decreased to 20 this month, down from 30 last month. A score below 50 indicates that a continued contraction is likely.

The only two primary leading indicators appraised as expanding—the M1 money supply and the yield curve index—reflect the government’s extremely expansionary monetary policy.  There is no evidence that the policy has had any influence on the broader economy.

Percentage of Leading Indicators December 2008

The AIER cyclical score, which is based on a purely mathematical analysis of the leading indicators, decreased from 37 last month to 33 this month. As with the percentage of leaders expanding, a number below 50 indicates a downturn is likely to continue.

Cyclical Score December 2008

Not one of the six roughly coincident indicators is appraised as expanding this month. The National Bureau of Economic Research announced recently that a recession started in December 2007. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the Gross Domestic Product fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

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Comments (4)
economics Tu curve and Mu curve
4 Monday, 24 August 2009 03:57
aj akbar kurla mumbai
aj akbar india (Kurla_mumbai)9820701979.An increase in unit can not change the slope of Mu curve,where as a change in unit can change the slope of Tu curve after a point.The slope of tu curve is not positive at all the levels of consumptions.Initially the slope of Tu curve is positive because initially the Mu is positive but as the consumer goes on consuming more and more commodity marginal utility goes on diminishing and as a result the total utility curve takes changes. The slope of tu curve remains positive till the Mu is positive but as Mu becomes negative the slope of Tu curve also changes its slope from positive to Negative.
National Debt
3 Monday, 12 January 2009 18:00
ben perl
When my father was born in 1900, the National Debt was $2 billion. In Ronald Reagan's first term, it crossed the $1 trillion mark. Twenty-five years later, it stands today at $10.7 trillion. Does anyone know what the National Debt will be twenty-five years from now? The second derivative of the curve of National Debt vs. year is positive, meaning that the number should cross $100 trillion in less than another twenty-five more years.

What will the value of the dollar be then? What will the degree of inflating be then? What will our economy look like? Will foreigners continue to buy United States' debt?

The House is holding hearings to revise the popular IRA. Why? Workers fund their IRAs with pre-tax dollars. The Federal government realizes no taxes from these employees until the IRA begins to be used for retirement income. And for new workers, that could be as many as thirty or forty years.

In Franklin Roosevelt's time, the government's share of GNP was 3%. Today it is 21%, and growing. When universal health care is imposed upon the populace, expect significant new government spending. This will further accrue to the current share of the nation's expenditures. Such new spending will dwarf any "stimulus" package now being considered by the incoming administration.


Simply put, the European experiment with socialism is coming here. The Federal government will be taking on significant additional debt. Private industry will be saddled with the need to carry even more government employees who will be lost to productive pursuits.

That is why I tell all young people to do two things: first, buy gold at pace. Second, open and fund a foreign bank account. Pay your taxes, report the account to the Treasury to conform with the law. And if Armageddon occurs, run to your money.
TRADE CYCLE
2 Sunday, 11 January 2009 23:09
sir.aj akbar
AJ AKBAR
THE TRADE CYCLE OCCURED DUE TO IMBALANCEMENT BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY,
Leading Indicators
1 Friday, 09 January 2009 09:15
Joe Smith
Poopy

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