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The slaughter of more 370,000 chickens in China last week has rekindled concern about the possibilities of a global flu pandemic. The birds were killed after the discovery of that some were infected with the deadly H5N1 virus. AIER’s December Economic Education Bulletin addresses the public health and economic consequences of a bird flu pandemic that could be caused by a mutated H5N1 virus. In “Bird Flu Economics,” William F. Ford, a recent AIER visiting research fellow, reports on the work of those who model for disaster.
Fortunately H5N1 has not yet changed into a virus that can spread from person to person, Should that happen Ford writes, best-case predictions anticipate 1.4 million human deaths worldwide and a loss to the global GDP of $330 billion. The worst case model ups the global death rate 100-fold to 142 million with a global GDP loss of $4.4 trillion. Ford’s piece also examines the grim impact of a bird flu outbreak in America: which industries will be hardest hit and what public health responses we can expect. The world press reports that U.N. authorities have minimized the threat posed by the most recent outbreak of bird flu. But the discovery in China’s Jingsai province follows the slaughter of 90,000 chickens the week before in Hong Kong. And health officials in India and Cambodia, where a 19-year-old man has tested positive for the virus, have begun culling chicken flocks for the disease. In Egypt, the worst-hit country outside Asia, a 16-year-old girl died this month of the disease. Members can access AIER’s “Bird Flu Economics” article by logging into the AIER digital archive (check the December 11 email from AIER for a link to this archive.) Not a member? Find out more about the benefits of becoming an AIER Sustaining Member. Membership starts at less than $40 for electronic delivery.
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(The article doesn't even mention Indonesia; why is that? The place has human-to-human cases and deaths about every month, due to late diagnosis and treatment, and, a very corrupt govt; that's lied to lower the "official numbers" this year; trying to keep tourist income up until panflu breaks out and halts traffic.
China keeps its cluster containments as 'state secrets' and us being unPrepared for panflu year is a strategy; not the "biological terrorist attack" you think the military is worried about, hm?
"Unprecedentedly" deadly multi-mammal species panflu Made-in-China; ungood.)
The only thing preventing it from being "sustained transmission" (aka: human Panflu year start) is because old-definition Phase 4 & 5 "Rapid Response and Containment": movement restrictions, Tamiflu 'blankets' to cases and contacts, BSL-3 PPE, and animal cull zones have been fighting to delay Pandemic start -
supposedly, states and locals were using this time to get ready for long-forseen supply chain and infrastructure disruptions; to be able to, "mitigate suffering and death" with, "scarce resources on hand" and, be ready for long-forseen "abject" conditions here, with "no vaccine" and "no outside aid available come Pandemic.
(Who attended your state's 2006 Pandemic Flu Summit with HHS?)
Did no one, the past 38 months, tell "Concerned Chicken Eater" to read the "Planning and Response" pages for "Individuals" and "Community" and "Business" on (up since Oct.2005) the fed. "pandemicflu.gov" site; paid for by our taxes?
Those "worst"-case numbers aren't even using H5N1's CFR because our officials say, "it is too hard".
The CFR, untreated at symptom onset (with an antiviral it will eventually become resistent to; the seasonal strains already have the gene, picked up from somewhere) is worse than that of SARS and smallpox added together.
Don't think "flu"; think, "airborne Ebola".
This has also always been a "birds and beasts" and humans flu; since 1997. H5N1 infects rodents, cats, dogs, Pigs, primates; "potentially any carnivore"; water and soil can be contaminated and a source of infection. Asymptomatic poultry have also been spreading the virus.
"Political and economic pressures" have trumped science and your safety.
The WHO Pandemic Phase Alert was unplugged Jan.2006, (and current draft changes 3 to "Now" and 4 to "Pandemic", instead of 6; surprise!
Stop being mislead; you've been playing 'russian roulette' with each cluster; they don't know if Containment worked until new cases have stopped; meanwhile, air travel continues, and "temperature screening' does not work for "flu", which is contagious before symptoms.)
Plenty of honest Free information online;
have you travellers read what's been up since July, 2006; "US State Dept H5N1 factsheet" or
everyone and their local "planners" read the April 2007; Dept of Homeland Security "Best Practices and Model Protocols" for pandemic flu,
or the 5-week, Health and Human Services "Pandemic Flu Leadership" (or lack thereof) Blog; from summer 2007?
(If you look, be sure and read the Comments; they are the most valuable parts)
or, where they're been translating local news, like
"PFI Pandemic Flu Information Forum"
or, the site with Free preparedness resources, hosted by the emergency mangement of Nez Perce Co.Idaho, made with concerned citizens, partly in response to what DHS said they'd need to request the public to do?
See GetPandemicReady.org