Is Consumer Credit the Next Bomb in the Economic Crisis? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Richard M. Ebeling   
Wednesday, 22 October 2008 00:00

Not surprisingly much of the economic news has focused on the financial crisis in the housing market. What has received less attention is the consumer credit market. As the table below shows, consumer credit outstanding has increased from a bit more than $2 trillion  in 2003 to $2.5 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2008, representing a 25 percent increase over five years.

Out of this total increase, consumer revolving credit (usually in the form of credit cards) has increased by 26 percent. Nonrevolving credit (usually in the form of car loans, and loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, and vacations) increased by nearly 24 percent.

Nonrevolving consumer credit was growing at a higher annual percentage rate of increase in 2003 and 2004 than it has been more recently, as is shown in the table. On the other hand, the annual rate of increase in consumer revolving credit (or credit card debt) accelerated significantly in 2006 and 2007, and only slowed in the first half of 2008. 

Consumer Credit

Source: Federal Reserve, Sept. 2008

 Consumer Credit Outstanding
 2003 - 2008
 Billions of U.S. Dollars

 

 200320042005200620072008 (end IIQ)
Total2,0782,1922,2852,3872,5212,587
Revolving770800824875935970
Nonrevolving1,3081,3921,4611,5131,5821,617
Source: Federal Reserve, Sept. 2008
Annual Percentage Change from Previous Year
 

 

200320042005
2006
2007
2008 (end IIQ)
Total5.35.54.34.55.62.6
Revolving2.93.83.16.17.44.8
Nonrevolving6.76.44.93.64.50.5
       
Per Capita Money Income2.25.14.95.65.1 
Per Capita Real Income-0.01-0.011.52-0.01 
Source: Federal Reserve and U.S. Census Bureau, Sept. 2008


The annual percentage increases in outstanding consumer credit is more or less in line with the annual rate of increase in per capita income in the United States between 2003 and 2007, the table shows. However, when consumer credit outstanding is compared to the annual increases in real per capita income, a different story is seen.

According to the U.S Census Bureau data for the period 2003-2007, real per capita income has barely gone up by between 1 and 2 percent. While people’s real income has only marginally increased over the last five years, their consumer credit burden has risen significantly.

Until now, the data suggested that people attempted to keep their consumer credit payments current so they could continue to make purchases with their credit cards. At the same time, they allowed their mortgage payments to fall behind if they found it increasingly difficult to make ends meet. But if the economy does fall into a serious recession, a growing number of people also may find it hard to make their consumer credit payments.

This will place even more pressure on the commercial banks and retail businesses that have extended these lines of credit to their customers. And another bomb may go off in the current economic crisis.

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Comments (3)
Deficit Spending will Never Work
3 Thursday, 06 November 2008 12:50
Jacquie Winter
As soon as Bush became President I had predicted this economic meltdown (deficit spending always seems to go UP when a Republican is in office....look at the trends from the Feds economic information since Reagan era). Therefore, I made a fervent attempt to pay off all my credit card debt, with the exception of a student loan (which I pay $100 over minimum amount to get this debt paid off sooner), I have no debt. Can't afford to buy a house, but I'm essentially debt free! I pay everything by cash! If I don't have the money, I save it until I can purchase what it is I want. People really need to start reevaluating how they spend and save. Yes, I've made some sacrifices and have gone without, but I no longer feel I have to keep up with the Jones' in the World and I'm not grieving as much as others during this very serious economic crisis. A premonition that came true, unfortunately, but whose laughing now to all the naysayers that I have been pleading to since the arrival of the Bush era! Viva Economic Revolution!
Credit Cards
2 Monday, 03 November 2008 22:56
Ted
In the past ten years I have been riding a Roller Coaster of
ups and down.

Fifteen years ago after a very succesful 50 years of marriage my wife died and I had Doctor,etc. bills, in the thousands. Needless to say I sold everything and hocked my credit cards to the maximum. I have struggled to build my credit back even with my cards charging a minimum of 19.9 %

My FICO dropped from 747 to to 657. Today my FICO is back to 711 and another prolem has started.

I am being re-evaluated by some of the Credit Card Companies
who are raising my rates without any reason given.

Example ADVANTA has raised my interest rate to 31.31% and a
promotional rate to 36.31% My balance is less than 45% of
my total credit limit.

I have never missed a payment - and always on time. Yet
without reason they raised my monthly payments from
$ 225.00 to $ 357.00.

I assume my only out will be to borrow again and pay off the total.

I can see how the country is going deep into credit debt.

Ted Kenessey
TKenessey@gmail.com
eagletjk@verizon.net
consumer crdit
1 Wednesday, 22 October 2008 16:46
Arthur Jones
If you attempt to get an estimate for the annual percentage change for 2008 in the consumer credit figures by multiplying the change in the first quarter by 4 and comparing it to the 2007 total the percent changes are
total 10.4%
revolving 15.0%
non-revolving 8.8%
Those are extremely rapid increases
Arthur Jones

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