Should We Care about Consumer Sentiment? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Kenneth D'Amica   
Sunday, 17 August 2008 19:00

Phil Gramm recently stepped down from his post as one of John McCain’s top economic advisors after sparking outrage by saying that America is currently undergoing a "mental recession" and had become "a nation of whiners."

To some extent, we at AIER would disagree with the former senator. Our measures of the business cycle have given somewhat negative, though certainly mixed, signals regarding the health of the economy.

However, measures of consumer sentiment alone seem to indicate that the country is in the midst of the worst recession since 1980. Back then, the unemployment rate was 7.5 percent and real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 7.8 percent.  However, the current situation, by comparison is not nearly so bad.

Unemployment rose slightly this month to 5.7 percent while GDP has increased for the past two quarters. GDP did decrease in the final quarter of 2007, but by a relatively small  -0.2 percent..

The Index of Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was 56.4 in June 2008, the lowest measure since the index fell to 51.6 in May 1980. Today this index is even lower than it was in 1982, a year in which unemployment reached 10.8 percent.

While it would be difficult to say that many of the woes affecting Americans today are imaginary, it does seem possible that the prevailing pessimism is overblown.

One possible explanation is in the price of a gallon of gasoline, the average price of which has risen, in inflation-adjusted terms, to an all-time high. The previous peak was in 1980, while the adjusted price fell throughout the 1982 recession.

In the short term, demand for gasoline is highly inelastic, meaning that people do not adjust their consumption much in response to price increases.  Much of the gloom may be attributable to resentment over the doubling of nominal gas prices in the last year rather than indicative of an overall economic malaise. As can be seen in the chart, the change in consumer sentiment closely mirrors the changes in gas prices.

 

In the past few weeks, crude oil prices have fallen to three month lows. Can we expect to see a rebound in consumer sentiment?

 

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Comments (6)
Reported Numbers Reliability
6 Thursday, 28 August 2008 22:13
Eric Nelson
If you believe that there is a bias to underreport the unemployment numbers you must also acknowledge that there is a certain segment of those reported as unemployed that have 1) received a severance package 2) are chosing to enjoy a paid vacation 3) Have job offers they are ignoring because their economic circumstances do not require that they collect a paycheck immediately. I suspect the two balance each other out but would like to see some hard data reflecting this.
Re: The previous 2 comments
5 Tuesday, 19 August 2008 17:47
Steve Meltzer
Thanks for your clarification. I do believe that the numbers are "tweaked". It would be great if AIER had an adjustment factor to establish the real numbers.
Unemployment
4 Monday, 18 August 2008 12:39
Kenneth D'Amica
Mr. Meltzer,

The definition of unemployment you cite is not the one used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, from whom we get our data. From their website: "Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work." Whether or not they are currently receiving unemployment benefits is not figured in. Also, 'discouraged' workers, or those who are not currently looking for work, are not counted as employed. They are not counted as being in the labor force.

I agree with you that this may understate the true unemployment rate. In our commentary, "Hidden Unemployment?," from March 31st, we estimated that the true unemployment rate could be 0.2 or 0.3 percentage points higher than the official figure, which we based on declines in labor force participation rates.

http://www.aier.org/research/commentaries/164-hidden-unemployment
Reported numbers reliablity
3 Monday, 18 August 2008 12:10
Steve Meltzer
The numbers/statistics that you use to make your case will be revised 3 times over the next 3 years. Historically those revisions indicate worsening conditions. Reallity is here in the real world, not "tweaked" feel good numbers that are not reprsentative of the facts. A good example is people that lose their jobs and draw unemployment. When their unemployment payments expire, the unemployment numbers assume that they are reemployed even though they have not found new employment. Adding these "discouraged" workers to the true unemplyment numbers would raise it 10%. On my street every unemployed/"discouraged" person is counted as employed. AIER needs to stand for the truth not govt/political spin.
Whiners
2 Monday, 18 August 2008 09:46
ronmarch
1. Senator Gramm is right on.
2. What is the meaning of word innured?
Who did you ask for the comment on the story? Red Riding Hood or The Wolf?
1 Monday, 18 August 2008 08:12
Get a grip
Perhaps we we are simply innured!

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