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The national unemployment rate now stands at 8.9 percent, but this percentage masks wide variation from state to state.
- The unemployment rate is 10 percent or higher in eight states. Michigan tops the list at 12.6 percent. Regionally, however, the hardest hit area is the West: Oregon (12.1 percent), California (11.1), and Nevada (10.4).
- The Plains states – Nebraska, North and South Dakota – have the lowest unemployment rates, all under 5 percent.
- In absolute numbers, the number of employed persons has decreased the most in the following states since the recession began: California (608,000), Florida (396,000), Michigan (392,000), and Illinois (373,000). These four states account for a quarter of U.S. employment, but they account for nearly 40 percent of the total decrease since December 2007.
- The table below shows the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employed persons for each state. It actually understates overall job losses during this recession because the unemployment rate is a leading indicator heading into recessions. It started to increase six months before the current contraction began, and our table excludes those early losses. Unfortunately, heading into recoveries the unemployment rate behaves differently--it’s a lagging indicator. This means it is likely to continue to increase for some months after the current recession ends.
| Unemployment by State | | | Unemployment Ratet Rate | Change in Employment
Since Recession Began | | March 2009 | Dec. 2007 | | Alabama | 9.0 | 3.8 | -138,417 | | Alaska | 8.5 | 6.3 | -3,126 | | Arizona | 7.8 | 4.3 | -52,360 | | Arkansas | 6.5 | 4.9 | -26,905 | | California | 11.2 | 5.9 | -607,966 | | Colorado | 7.5 | 4.1 | -74,626 | | Connecticut | 7.5 | 4.9 | -26,354 | | Delaware | 7.7 | 3.8 | -21,716 | | D.C. | 9.8 | 5.8 | -14,958 | | Florida | 9.7 | 4.8 | -395,645 | | Georgia | 9.2 | 5.1 | -233,532 | | Hawaii | 7.1 | 3.1 | -29,527 | | Idaho | 7.0 | 3.6 | -27,596 | | Illinois | 9.1 | 5.6 | -373,147 | | Indiana | 10.0 | 4.5 | -174,734 | | Iowa | 5.2 | 3.8 | -20,202 | | Kansas | 6.1 | 4.1 | -10,634 | | Kentucky | 9.8 | 5.5 | -41,684 | | Louisiana | 5.8 | 3.9 | -22,081 | | Maine | 8.1 | 4.7 | -22,566 | | Maryland | 6.9 | 3.6 | -124,030 | | Massachusetts | 7.8 | 4.5 | -106,026 | | Michigan | 12.6 | 7.3 | -392,257 | | Minnesota | 8.2 | 4.8 | -61,209 | | Mississippi | 9.4 | 6.1 | -35,562 | | Missouri | 8.7 | 5.3 | -104,048 | | Montana | 6.1 | 3.8 | -15,430 | | Nebraska | 4.6 | 2.7 | -17,101 | | Nevada | 10.4 | 5.2 | -25,167 | | New Hampshire | 6.2 | 3.5 | -14,950 | | New Jersey | 8.3 | 4.5 | -108,913 | | New Mexico | 5.9 | 3.6 | -20,073 | | New York | 7.8 | 4.6 | -166,335 | | North Carolina | 10.8 | 5.0 | -238,793 | | North Dakota | 4.2 | 3.1 | -1,664 | | Ohio | 9.7 | 5.8 | -252,538 | | Oklahoma | 5.9 | 3.6 | -16,449 | | Oregon | 12.1 | 5.3 | -74,036 | | Pennsylvania | 7.8 | 4.6 | -105,227 | | Rhode Island | 10.5 | 6.0 | -31,279 | | South Carolina | 11.4 | 5.8 | -70,471 | | South Dakota | 4.9 | 2.7 | -4,039 | | Tennessee | 9.6 | 5.3 | -125,358 | | Texas | 6.7 | 4.4 | -19,988 | | Utah | 5.2 | 3.0 | -19,408 | | Vermont | 7.2 | 4.0 | -6,442 | | Virginia | 6.8 | 3.3 | -82,538 | | Washington | 9.2 | 4.6 | -54,607 | | West Virginia | 6.9 | 4.3 | -36,939 | | Wisconsin | 8.5 | 4.5 | -106,457 | | Wyoming | 4.5 | 2.9 | -4,704 |
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How are people counted who are out of work but don't inform authorities (state or federal) who calulate the statistic to which their unemployment applies? I'm thinking of poeple like those who "saved for a rainy day" and are living off those funds, people who have received their maximun allotment of payments, people who are living at another's (spouse, friend, relative) expense while job hunting, people who ar officially unemployed but who are working off the books, etc.
On the question of whether the unemployment rate is a leading indicator heading into recessions, it has long been classified as such, based on its behavior in post-World War II business cycles. (Many of the cyclical classifications of economic series, including this one, are based on a variety of studies but particularly on the analyses done over the years by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.)
No statistical indicator has a perfect record, and the unemployment rate has sometimes behaved more like a coincider. And it has sometimes given false signals. This is true of most other indicators as well. This is one reason why AIER follows 12 leading indicators for our monthly analysis of business-cycle conditions, so that we don't rely too much on any single series.
Thanks for your comments.
The President of County Cook Todd Stroger just gave his buddy Dale Magee a $61,500. a year job placing him in charge of dog linceses and concession stands for the Forest Preserve District which is managed by Cook County.
The fact that Mr. Magee is currently the Mayor of Merionette Park, a Democratic Committeeman, and recently retiree from Cook County's David Orr office in August of last year...salary at retirement $82,500. Not to worry Mr. Magee can receive his retirement pay from Cook County while working for the Forest Preserve District...I am sure many were concerned about Mr. Magee's income.....
I am sure if that Forest Preserve job was advertised the line of applicants would be miles long.
Being retired for 8 years I have problems just keeping up with retirement...I wonder what it must be like to be retired with three jobs, recieving two pay checks, plus retiremnet income from the County and probably social security income.
Ask a Illinos Democratic Politician how muuch is enough....and his answer will be....just a little bit more!!!!!
I was wondering how you calculated that the unemployment rate is a leading indicator heading into recessions? Below is the link to the chart of St. Louis Fed's civilan unemployment rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&width=1000&height=600&preserve_ratio=true&s[1][id]=UNRATE
As I look at it, there a number of times were the unemployment rate starts to trend higher, but the economy did not enter into a recession.
To me, it appears that the unemployment rate is a coincident indicator during a recession and is a lagging indicator on the way out.
Thanks