The current recession is shaping up to be one of the worst in postwar history. And recent data show no signs of improvements in business-cycle conditions.  

For the fourth month in a row, the percentage of our primary leading indicators appraised as expanding remains at 17 (2 out of 12).  With all of our measures, a value below 50 indicates that a contraction is more likely than an expansion.

The employment situation deteriorated further in March, and it will probably get even worse in the near future because of layoffs and plant closings planned by General Motors and other automakers. The average workweek in manufacturing has been falling for 12 months and currently stands at 39.3 hours. The initial claims for state unemployment insurance increased again in March, representing the 14th month of increase.

New housing permits fell again in March, establishing a new record low in the postwar period. The extremely low level of housing construction has helped to bring down the inventory of houses available for sale, but it has not reached normal levels yet.

The cyclical score, which is based on separate purely mathematical analysis of the leaders, fell to 27 from 28 last month, which also signals that the downturn is likely to continue.

Among the primary roughly coincident indicators, we downgraded the appraisal of personal income less transfer payments to clearly contracting because the series has declined for so many months its cyclical is zero. As a result, all coinciders are now appraised as clearly contracting. The cyclical score of coinciders fell to two this month--the lowest postwar reading.

Read a general description of our indicators and methods of analysis.

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