How Will the Job Market Rebound? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Keming Liang   
Monday, 23 March 2009 00:00

The rapid deterioration of the job market, which has shed more than 650,000 jobs for each of the past three months, is causing hardship for individuals and alarm among economists. One such economist is Robert Barbera, chief economist for the research and trading firm ITG, who recently described the near-record rates of employment decline as a “violent downward trajectory.”

As the chart below shows, the current job loss is striking, but this has often been the case during postwar recessions, particularly during the recessions of the 1940s. The extraordinary job loss in 1945 was the result of the transformation of the war-focused industries and the job transfers from women and teenagers to veterans returning from  World War II.

 

Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll (in thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

But the chart also shows some rapid rebounds of employment after the recessions. For example, the market added about 400,000 jobs each month in the year following the 1945 recession. After the recession in 1981-82, the markets rebounded and added more than 1.1 million jobs in September 1983 alone. Nearly 85 percent of these new jobs came from the service sector.

This didn’t happen during recoveries of the 1990s and after the recession of 2001-02.  Economists debate the causes of these jobless recoveries. There are several popular explanations. One is that advances in technology allowed firms to operate without increasing hiring. Another is that structural changes in job markets required more time to impact the job market because workers needed to acquire new skills. A third is that some factories shifted part of their business offshore.

There is not yet any sign of the current recession coming to an end. Nor is there any indication of which pattern of recovery the job market will follow when the turnaround finally occurs.

 

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Comments (4)
Jobs
4 Thursday, 09 July 2009 21:24
Get off of your lazy rearend and shift into high gear
Work as hard as you can for as long as you can and never get discouraged. Never say a mean word and always be encouraging. Do the job that no one else wants to do. Lower your pride and expectations. Lets take our country back from foreign labor. Lets clean toilets and mop floors. Dig trenches and pull cotton. Take pride in yourself and your work. Don't accept government handouts. Get off of welfare and disibility even if it means giving up your security blanket. Don't be a slacker. Make your family proud even if you are not.
Suggestions to improve US labor market
3 Thursday, 02 April 2009 15:29
KB
It is difficult to counteract against countries that manipulate the exchange rate of their currencies; coupled with a lack of enforceable labor laws, these countries can produce and market goods cheaply in the international market.

We can invite foreign firms that bring unique and sustainable innovation to locate their manufacturing / R&D prowess in our country, provided they reciprocate in a similar manner (in other industries where we may competitive edge). Therefore, we need to have policies that will
(i) Impose a certain minimum % of local content and
(ii) Prevent labor arbitrage for skill sets readily available in our country.

It is time we prevent hollowing of our industries and have an eco-system that can sustain and grow our research & development capabilities.
lack of rebound in the job market
2 Sunday, 29 March 2009 20:52
t r wolbert
it's common knowledge that the rebound in jobs after the current recessions is due to the flight of jobs to overseas and mexico. If there is any doubt, study such companies as Levi-Strauss or Delphi. These companies move manufacturing to Mexico saying labor cost are too high in the U.S. Then they sell back to the U.S. at the same price as before. no tarrifs mind you
Some changes that would help the job market . . .
1 Monday, 23 March 2009 10:35
Leonard Hartman
Lower the minimum wage
Reduce employment litigation to encourage new business start up;
Lower taxes for new business start up
Lower unemployment compensation.
Require Craft Union to foster skill training programs as a source for new members.
Retain secret ballot for Union membership

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